This week’s average mortgage rates
These are the national averages from the Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which Freddie Mac has published every week since 1971. It surveys lenders on the rate offered to a well-qualified borrower — conventional, conforming, with a substantial down payment — so it is a benchmark for where the market sits, not a quote you can accept.
The survey is weekly, and this page says so rather than dressing it up as a daily number. Rates do move between surveys; sites showing an intraday index are reporting a different, unofficial measure. If you are mid-application, the figure that matters is your lock, not either of these.
Why mortgage rates are where they are
Mortgage rates do not follow the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, which is the single most common misunderstanding about them. They track the 10-year Treasury yield, because 30-year mortgages are bundled into bonds that compete with Treasuries for the same investors, and because most mortgages are repaid or refinanced long before 30 years — which makes the ten-year the right comparison.
What sits on top of that yield is the spread: the extra return investors demand for taking mortgage risk instead of government risk. It covers the possibility of early repayment, of default, and of holding a security that is harder to sell. That spread has averaged roughly 1.7 points over the long run, and it widens when the market is nervous — which is why mortgage rates can rise in a week when Treasury yields have not moved at all.
The Fed still matters, just indirectly. Its decisions shape expectations for growth and inflation, expectations move the ten-year, and the ten-year moves mortgages. A rate cut that markets have already priced in can arrive with mortgage rates unchanged or even higher, and frequently does.
Where this sits against the past year
Every figure above is computed from the survey’s own weekly history rather than recalled, so it moves when the data does. The range is worth more than the current number on its own: a rate near the top of its 52-week band is a different decision from the same rate near the bottom, and knowing which you are looking at is most of what "is this a good rate?" really means.
One caution on waiting. A rate that has fallen for a month can reverse in a week, and the cost of waiting is not zero — a home price moving against you, or rent paid in the meantime, frequently outweighs a quarter point. Our mortgage calculator prices the difference exactly, and it is usually smaller than people expect on the payment and larger than they expect over the full term.
What actually moves rates week to week
- Inflation data. The single strongest driver. Bond investors are lending for a decade or more, so anything suggesting inflation will run hotter pushes yields — and mortgage rates — up.
- The jobs report. A strong labour market implies more spending and firmer inflation, which tends to raise rates. Weakness does the reverse, which is why bad economic news often arrives with cheaper mortgages.
- Fed commentary, not just Fed decisions. Markets price the expected path. A speech that shifts expectations can move the ten-year more than the decision itself.
- Treasury supply and demand. How much government debt is being issued, and who is buying it, changes yields regardless of the economy.
- Risk appetite. In a flight to safety, investors buy Treasuries — pushing that yield down — while demanding a wider spread on mortgage debt. The two can cancel out, which is why mortgage rates sometimes barely move through a market panic.
None of that is forecastable with any reliability, which is why this page does not carry a prediction. Anyone quoting a number for next month is guessing with more confidence than the data supports.
What decides the rate you are offered
The survey average is a starting point. Your quote is built from it by adjustments that are specific to you and to the loan, and they add up to far more than most borrowers expect.
- Credit score. The largest single lever, and it moves in tiers rather than smoothly — a few points can cross a threshold and change the price.
- Down payment and loan-to-value. More equity means less risk, so a better rate. Below 20% you also pay mortgage insurance, which the mortgage calculator prices alongside the payment.
- Term. Shorter is cheaper — the 15-year average above is well below the 30-year, because the lender’s money is at risk for half as long.
- Points. You can buy the rate down by paying a fee up front. Whether that pays depends entirely on how long you keep the loan, which is a break-even calculation rather than a preference.
- Loan type and size. FHA, VA and jumbo loans each price differently, and a conforming loan at the top of its limit is not priced like one just over it.
- Property and occupancy. A second home or an investment property costs more than the one you live in. A condo can cost more than a house.
Which is why comparing lenders matters more than watching the average. Several applications inside a short window count as a single credit inquiry, so shopping four lenders costs no more than shopping one — and the spread between the best and worst offer for the same borrower on the same day is routinely larger than a month of market movement.
How each type of mortgage is priced
The averages above are for conventional conforming loans — not backed by a government programme, and inside the loan limit that lets them be sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. That saleability is why they are the cheapest widely available option, and why they are the benchmark everyone quotes. The other categories price differently, and knowing which one you are in explains most of the gap between a headline average and a real quote.
- FHA loans accept lower credit scores and down payments from 3.5%, and their note rate is often at or below the conventional average because the government insures the lender against loss. The cost lives elsewhere: an up-front premium plus an annual one that, on most FHA loans taken with a small down payment, lasts the life of the loan rather than falling away at 20% equity. Compare the total, not the rate.
- VA loans are the strongest deal in the market for those eligible — no down payment required, no monthly mortgage insurance, and rates typically below conventional. There is a one-off funding fee, waived for some veterans.
- Jumbo loans exceed the conforming limit, so they cannot be sold on in the usual way and the lender keeps the risk. Pricing varies far more between lenders than conventional pricing does, and underwriting is stricter on reserves and credit. Shopping matters most here.
- Adjustable-rate mortgages start below a comparable fixed rate and then reset to a market index after the initial period — commonly five, seven or ten years. The lower start is real; so is the fact that you are holding the risk of where rates are on reset day. They make sense when you are confident about your horizon, and are a gamble when you are not.
- Shorter fixed terms — 20-year, 15-year, even 10-year — price below the 30-year because the lender is exposed for less time. The payment is higher and the total interest dramatically lower; the amortization calculator shows both sides of that trade.
Two loans can carry the same rate and cost thousands of dollars differently once insurance, funding fees and term are counted, which is the argument for comparing on APR and on total cost rather than on the rate alone.
What this page does not show, and why
No lender rate table. The pages that carry one are fed by paid placement, and we have no such feed — so a table here would mean publishing rates we cannot source. On a page people use to make a thirty-year decision, that is not a trade worth making. What we publish is the official weekly survey, named and dated, and the honest statement that your own quote will differ from it.
No daily index. Freddie Mac surveys weekly; a daily figure would be a different, unofficial measure presented as if it were this one.
No forecast. And no adjustable-rate or jumbo averages, because the survey discontinued its ARM series and there is no comparable public jumbo benchmark — an estimate would look like data.
What to do instead: get Loan Estimates from more than one lender. It is a standardised three-page form, which makes competing offers directly comparable in a way phone quotes never are. Page one carries the rate, the monthly principal and interest, and whether the rate can change; page two itemises the closing costs and separates what the lender charges from what you can shop for. That second column is where offers differ most and where a quoted rate is often bought with fees.
Then ask two questions before you commit. How long is the rate lock, and what does an extension cost — locks typically run 30 to 60 days, and one that expires before closing puts you back at whatever the market is doing that week. And are there points built into the quote, because a rate that looks a quarter point better than the competition sometimes simply has a fee attached to it. The refinance calculator and affordability calculator both work from the rate you were actually quoted rather than from an average, which is the right way round.
Mortgage rate questions people ask
Are mortgage rates going down?
Nobody knows, and this page deliberately does not guess. What can be said is where rates sit against their 52-week range, and what the spread over the 10-year Treasury implies about how much of the rate is market risk rather than the underlying yield. Both are above.
Why did my quote come in higher than the average here?
The survey measures the rate offered to a well-qualified borrower on a conventional conforming loan with a substantial down payment. Your credit tier, loan-to-value, loan type, property type and whether you pay points all adjust the price from there. The average is a benchmark, not an offer.
Do mortgage rates follow the Federal Reserve?
Only indirectly. They track the 10-year Treasury yield plus a risk spread. Fed decisions shape the expectations that move that yield, which is why a widely expected cut can arrive with mortgage rates flat or higher.
Is it better to wait for rates to fall?
Sometimes, and the cost of waiting is rarely zero — rent paid, or a price moving against you, often outweighs a quarter of a point. Price both sides rather than assuming: the mortgage calculator shows what the rate difference is worth on the payment and over the full term.
How often does the survey update?
Weekly. Freddie Mac publishes the Primary Mortgage Market Survey each Thursday, and the week it covers is stated at the top of this page. Rates move between surveys, so a lock is the only figure that is genuinely yours.
Should I buy points to lower my rate?
It depends on how long you keep the loan. Points are an up-front fee that buys a permanently lower rate, so there is a break-even month — keep the loan past it and you win, refinance or sell before it and you lose. Compare offers on APR, which folds the fee in.